The challenge is clear: can a beloved sci-fi series that has spanned five decades still ignite a passionate response at the box office? This is exactly the question Disney faces with its new release, “Tron: Ares,” which is expected to earn between $45 million and $50 million from about 4,000 theaters across North America this opening weekend. To put this into perspective, this range matches closely with the 2010 sequel “Tron: Legacy,” which launched with $44 million (not accounting for inflation). It also dwarfs the original 1982 “Tron,” which had a modest $4.7 million opening but went on to become a cult classic. Globally, “Tron: Ares” hopes to add another $40 million to $45 million, potentially bringing its worldwide total near $85 million to $95 million by the end of Sunday.
What’s fascinating—and often overlooked—is that, despite being celebrated for pioneering visuals (the franchise was a trailblazer in CGI usage at its inception), “Tron” has never been a massive box office juggernaut. The first film grossed $50 million worldwide on a $17 million budget, while the sequel brought in a far larger $400 million globally on a $170 million budget. Now, with “Tron: Ares,” the stakes are even higher, given its hefty $180 million production cost.
Directed by Joachim Rønning, well known for his work on “Pirates of the Caribbean,” “Tron: Ares” explores a compelling sci-fi premise where humanity encounters artificial intelligence for the first time, with a sophisticated AI agent crossing over from the digital world into reality. Jeff Bridges returns as Kevin Flynn, reprising his iconic role, while new cast members include Jared Leto, Greta Lee, and Evan Peters. Variety’s chief film critic Peter Debruge complimented the film’s visual style but mentioned it primarily feels like "a nostalgia-driven exercise."
When comparing this to other films releasing this weekend, none are expected to rival “Tron: Ares” in box office earnings. Paramount’s adult-rated dramedy “Roofman,” starring Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst, aims for an $8 million to $12 million haul across 3,340 locations. Meanwhile, Jennifer Lopez’s musical “Kiss of the Spider Woman” faces a tough start, with projections between $1.5 million and $3 million from 1,300 theaters, marking a disappointing debut.
“Roofman,” directed by Derek Cianfrance of "Blue Valentine" fame, tells a gripping true story about a former soldier and professional thief who escapes prison and hides out in a Toys “R” Us. Backed by Miramax, this movie was produced on a modest $17 million budget and has received strong critical acclaim, holding an 81% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. This positive reception could fuel good word-of-mouth. Variety's Peter Debruge praised the on-screen chemistry between Tatum and Dunst as a standout aspect that makes the film worth watching repeatedly.
On the other hand, “Kiss of the Spider Woman” was independently financed with a budget in the high $30 million range and was picked up by Roadside Attractions and Lionsgate following its Sundance premiere. Directed by Bill Condon, this remake is set mostly in an Argentine prison and follows a queer window dresser who escapes the cruelty of confinement through vivid daydreams featuring his favorite film star. This is the second adaptation of the story, following the critically acclaimed 1985 version directed by Héctor Babenco, which earned $17 million worldwide. Even without adjusting for inflation, this modern version may struggle to reach or exceed the box office success of its predecessor.
But here’s where it gets controversial: is the nostalgia factor enough to carry “Tron: Ares” beyond just a fleeting moment of excitement? Does a franchise that’s celebrated more for its visual innovations than its broad commercial appeal stand a real chance against modern blockbusters? And with other new releases struggling to gain momentum, can these films find their audiences, or are they destined to be footnotes in an ever-competitive marketplace? Share your thoughts—do you think “Tron: Ares” will revive the magic, or is it time for the franchise to make way for fresh stories?
