ZiPS 2026: Pitchers on the Rise and Fall
The ZiPS projection system is a fascinating tool for baseball enthusiasts, but how do its predictions change over time? It's not just about knowing the current projections; it's also intriguing to see which players have undergone the most significant transformations. These changes can reveal valuable insights into player development and aging.
Yesterday, we explored the hitters who have gained and declined the most (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2026-movers-and-shakers-hitters/). Now, let's turn our attention to the pitchers who have experienced similar fluctuations.
Methodology:
I've adopted a straightforward approach: ranking the difference in 2026 WAR projections compared to Opening Day 2025. For decliners, I've excluded off-the-radar types and those whose decline is primarily due to major arm injuries. It's worth noting that there might be slight variations between ZiPS WAR and FanGraphs WAR due to methodological differences.
The Rising Stars:
- Hunter Brown: From a good pitcher to a Cy Young contender, Brown's breakout season in 2024 was followed by an even more impressive 2025. His ability to miss bats, control walks, and limit hard contact is exceptional.
- Jacob deGrom: Improved health has boosted deGrom's late-career prospects, potentially enhancing his Hall of Fame chances.
- Cristopher Sánchez: Taking over as the Phillies' ace in 2025, Sánchez's improvement was evident across the board, backed by Statcast data. His contact rate suggests an even higher K/9 rate is possible.
- Garrett Crochet: After a Cy Young-caliber 2024, Crochet's projection is even more optimistic. Two healthy seasons post-injury bode well for his future.
- Paul Skenes: Following a phenomenal 2024 debut, Skenes repeated his success in 2025 with no meaningful regression. His age and contract make him the most valuable pitcher in baseball.
- Andrew Abbott: ZiPS sees Abbott as a solid no. 2 starter with room for improvement in his strikeout rate. His ability to limit hard-hit balls has been crucial.
- Nolan McLean: While his early success with the Mets may not be sustainable, McLean's full-season performance in the high minors was impressive. He could be a Cy Young contender soon.
- Shane Smith: A highlight of the White Sox, Smith's velocity and changeup make him a legitimate no. 2 starter with room to grow.
- Jesús Luzardo: Luzardo's sinker has become a weapon, and his stats rebounded after an injury-plagued 2024. A significant payday could be on the horizon.
The Declining Arms:
- Walker Buehler: ZiPS had high hopes for Buehler's comeback in 2024, but his 2025 season was a letdown. A decline in strikeouts, increased walks, and reduced velocity have dampened expectations for 2026.
- Quinn Mathews: Despite being difficult to make contact against, Mathews' high walk rate has hindered his success. ZiPS still believes in his future potential.
- Roki Sasaki: Sasaki's raw talent is undeniable, but his development may take longer than expected. ZiPS had lower expectations compared to other NPB transplants.
- Erick Fedde: Fedde's 2025 season was a disaster, with plummeting strikeouts and soaring walks. The Statcast data offers little encouragement.
- Sandy Alcantara: Returning from Tommy John surgery, Alcantara's 2025 performance was better than his ERA indicated. ZiPS expects him to be league average in 2026, but there's significant risk.
The Bottom Line:
ZiPS projections offer a unique perspective on player performance, but they are not infallible. The system's predictions can change significantly over time, influenced by various factors. Understanding these fluctuations provides valuable insights into player development and aging, helping fans and analysts alike make more informed assessments.
But here's where it gets controversial: How much should we rely on projection systems like ZiPS? Are they a reliable guide to a player's future, or just one of many tools in the scouting toolbox? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
